Print the page
Increase font size
The Chinese Chip Dilema

Posted October 25, 2023

James Altucher

By James Altucher

The Chinese Chip Dilema

AI Chips are still booming.

Nvidia has already made a fortune and new high-end processors are in development from other big chip makers, as well as the Tech Giants who are investing heavily in AI development.

So far, the sky has been the limit for AI hardware developers.

But of course even the government will even try to regulate the sky.

If anything can be seen as a danger to the upward momentum of chip makers, it’s the potential for even stricter restrictions on exports to China.

The Biden administration has already limited what hardware can be sold to the Chinese, but it seems imminent that even more limitations are looming.

30+ year AI expert James Altucher chimes in on what this means for these chip makers and how it will affect his AI investment thesis…

Chips, ChatGPT, and China

As you know, we’ve been talking a lot about AI.

Recent developments have some of our readers nervous.

So I want to clear the air.

It’s true…

The rapid growth of the AI industry has some military officials on edge.

Their primary concern? In the hands of powerful adversaries like China, sophisticated AI technology could threaten US military dominance.

In an attempt to slow the development of Chinese AI, President Biden passed a series of regulations restricting the sale of the most advanced semiconductors to China.

By restricting access, the Biden administration hoped it could give Western technology companies an advantage in the development of cutting-edge AI.

However, the regulations haven’t worked out quite as planned.

A leading AI chip designer responded by developing a special version of its high-end chips designed to take advantage of a loophole in the export restrictions.

Now it looks as though the Biden administration could be closing that loophole…

The Tech War Expands

The Commerce Department announced on Tuesday that it would be introducing a new set of restrictions designed to limit China’s access to high-end chips further.

The forthcoming rules would also add 21 new countries to the list of countries prohibited from buying certain top-of-the-line semiconductors.

Some investors are concerned that the leading AI chip designer could be at risk with the new regulations.

However, the concerns about the impact of China on chip sales might be overblown.

This demand is only likely to keep growing with the next generation of AI.

For reference, GPT-4 is estimated to have required the use of many high-end processors for 90 days.

According to some estimates, the next iteration of this technology will require significantly more processing power for about the same amount of time.

ChatGPT will also need a considerable number of these devices to respond to user prompts throughout the day.

Which is to say, AI is a bit like SUVs in the early 2000s – it is getting more powerful but it will also become bigger and more energy-hungry as a result.

For this reason, chip companies are unlikely to run low on customers any time soon.

As AI advances, the need for a larger quantity of high-powered chips is expected to skyrocket as well.

The massive productivity benefits of powerful AI will more than offset the cost, meaning that chip designers and manufacturing are likely to remain strong for years to come.

AI Gets Political

AI Gets Political

Posted January 17, 2024

By Ray Blanco

AI takes center stage in Davos. How this week will shape what AI looks like for decades to come.

Consumer Electronics Show Debrief!

Posted January 16, 2024

By Ray Blanco

A run down of what the Paradigm crew learned from CES in Vegas - plus the week’s top tech stories.

Filtering Out Fake News

Posted January 12, 2024

By Ray Blanco

AI offers a unique solution to the Fake News epidemic.

Should I Buy Bitcoin?

Posted January 11, 2024

By Ray Blanco

It’s official, the Bitcoin ETF has been approved. Its price keeps going up, but should you buy-in now?

Live From CES in Vegas!

Posted January 10, 2024

By Ray Blanco

Zach, Matt, Ari, and Bob are providing live updates from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Bigger Than Bitcoin

Posted January 09, 2024

By James Altucher

James Altucher tells us why he’s not bothering with the next Bitcoin bull run, even though he thinks it’s legit.