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Leaning on Decades of Market History

Posted September 14, 2022

Ray Blanco

By Ray Blanco

Leaning on Decades of Market History

The markets took a big hit yesterday following higher-than-expected inflation data that came through the CPI report. 

The NASDAQ completely tanked, stumbling over 5% on the day. Talk about painful… 

Yesterday’s CPI report poured cold water all over the market narrative that a potential easing in inflation data could provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) cover to ease up on its aggressive tightening campaign.

Now, the writing on the wall is telling us to fully expect another 0.75 bps rate hike, maybe even a full point. 

In recent appearances, Fed chairman Jerome Powell has said they will raise interest rates "until the job is done" bringing inflation back towards the Fed's 2% goal.

The one saving grace we still have at the moment is that the rally leading up to yesterday’s dump was strong enough to keep us above the September highs (for now). It feels like a retest of the June lows is coming sooner rather than later, but that doesn’t mean everything is falling apart. 

We’ll likely see quite a bit more volatility before everything is said and done, it seems like all eyes are on the Fed for now as we await more rate hikes. 

Sure, there’s a lot of doom and gloom right now in the markets, but I do still think that the bottom is firmly in place and we’ll end the year higher than we were in the middle of the year. 

It's important to keep in mind that we're still well off the bottoms that were set in the major indices back in June. It’s not too long ago we saw the S&P sell off about 20%, then we bounced back a little bit over half that downward move, that’s not something that happens very often in bear markets… 

In fact, going back decades and decades, we've never seen the market recover 50% or better from a major sell-off only for it to slide to new lows. So, the bottom may be in the rearview here... we'll see what happens this go around.

Plus, with all the sell-off lately, there are a lot of good opportunities out there. 

There's value being exposed all over the place. Right now, we’ve hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested to build out a new generation of semiconductor capacity. 

Naturally, this is going to be very bullish for these companies and I think the market's going to be able to price that in a little bit better moving forward.

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